Current YES Probability
1.9%0.0% (24h)
NO: 98.3%• Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
—
Total Volume
$38,546.06
Liquidity
$3,656.42
Thin
Volatility
—
Market Split
3%
Market Microstructure
Real-time order book metrics. Depth shows available USD liquidity. Open Interest represents outstanding contracts.
Mid
1.7%
Spread
0.40% (2353bps)
Depth
$3.7k
Tick Size
0.10%
Market Info
Resolution Date
Dec 31, 2025
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
Politics
No chart data available.
Markets Across Platforms
| Platform | Yes | No | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| - | - | Trade |
Resolution Rules
There are currently around 200 Hamas fighters trapped in the Israeli-controlled portion of Gaza, separated from the Hamas-controlled portion of Gaza by the “Yellow Line”. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/kushner-israel-trapped-hamas-fighters-issue-bedevils-gaza-truce-progress-2025-11-10/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Israel allows 20 or more Hamas fighters trapped in the Israeli-controlled portions of Gaza to leave to areas not under Israeli control by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
20 or more Hamas fighters being allowed to leave to Hamas-controlled portions of Gaza, third-party countries, or any other areas not under Israeli control will all qualify for a “Yes” resolution. Transfers to Israeli detention outside of Israeli-controlled Gaza will not count.
Escapes, rescues, or other methods of leaving Israeli-controlled Gaza will not count.
The relevant Hamas fighters must be credibly reported to have been allowed to leave Israeli-controlled Gaza within this market’s timeframe. Announcements alone that the fighters will be allowed to leave will not qualify.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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