20+ trapped Hamas fighters allowed to leave in 2025?

Rank #14647·0 on watchlist
polymarket
Resolves Dec 31, 2025 BinaryUpdated just nowPolitics
Current YES Probability
1.9%0.0% (24h)
NO: 98.3% Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
Total Volume
$38,546.06
Liquidity
$3,656.42
Thin
Volatility
Market Split
3%

Market Microstructure

Mid
1.7%
Spread
0.40% (2353bps)
Depth
$3.7k
Tick Size
0.10%

Market Info

Resolution Date
Dec 31, 2025
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
Politics
No chart data available.

Markets Across Platforms

PlatformYesNoAction
polymarket--Trade

Resolution Rules

There are currently around 200 Hamas fighters trapped in the Israeli-controlled portion of Gaza, separated from the Hamas-controlled portion of Gaza by the “Yellow Line”. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/kushner-israel-trapped-hamas-fighters-issue-bedevils-gaza-truce-progress-2025-11-10/. This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Israel allows 20 or more Hamas fighters trapped in the Israeli-controlled portions of Gaza to leave to areas not under Israeli control by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. 20 or more Hamas fighters being allowed to leave to Hamas-controlled portions of Gaza, third-party countries, or any other areas not under Israeli control will all qualify for a “Yes” resolution. Transfers to Israeli detention outside of Israeli-controlled Gaza will not count. Escapes, rescues, or other methods of leaving Israeli-controlled Gaza will not count. The relevant Hamas fighters must be credibly reported to have been allowed to leave Israeli-controlled Gaza within this market’s timeframe. Announcements alone that the fighters will be allowed to leave will not qualify. The primary source of resolution for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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