30-year mortgage rate below 6% by December 31?
Rank #15128·0 on watchlist
Resolves Dec 31, 2025 BinaryUpdated just nowPolitics
Current YES Probability
0.7%0.0% (24h)
NO: 99.5%• Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
—
Total Volume
$35,266.93
Liquidity
$996.64
Thin
Volatility
—
Market Split
1%
Market Microstructure
Real-time order book metrics. Depth shows available USD liquidity. Open Interest represents outstanding contracts.
Mid
0.55%
Spread
0.30% (5455bps)
Depth
$997
Tick Size
0.10%
Market Info
Resolution Date
Dec 31, 2025
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
Politics
No chart data available.
Markets Across Platforms
| Platform | Yes | No | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
 polymarket | - | - | Trade |
Resolution Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States falls below 6.00% at any point between September 2 and December 31, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If, for any reason, there is no data point for this market's resolution date on either of the sources listed below, information for the nearest previously available date will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market is Freddie Mac, specifically https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms. The data that will be looked at is the "30Y FRM" as indicated on the graph titled "Primary Mortgage Market Survey®". If the resolution source is unavailable, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US will be looked at instead. If both sources are unavailable, other credible reporting may be used.
Trending in Politics
#1
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 22?
+0.0%
#2
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 26?
+0.0%
#3
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
+0.0%