Current YES Probability
1.9%0.0% (24h)
NO: 98.5%• Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
—
Total Volume
$472,891.01
Liquidity
$3,287.77
Thin
Volatility
—
Market Split
3%
Market Microstructure
Real-time order book metrics. Depth shows available USD liquidity. Open Interest represents outstanding contracts.
Mid
1.5%
Spread
0.80% (5333bps)
Depth
$3.3k
Tick Size
0.10%
Market Info
Resolution Date
Dec 31, 2025
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
Politics
No chart data available.
Markets Across Platforms
| Platform | Yes | No | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| - | - | Trade |
Resolution Rules
Six candidates of the German party AfD (Alternative for Germany) in North Rhine-Westphalia—four official contenders and two reserve list candidates—died between mid‑August and early September 2025, ahead of the September 14 local elections, prompting ballot reprints and political controversy.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if definitive evidence confirming at least one of those deaths involved foul play is released by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Statements from the German government indicating that there was foul play will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from any German government agency, law enforcement agencies, and courts; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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