Current YES Probability
3.1%0.0% (24h)
NO: 97.7%• Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
—
Total Volume
$1,045,233.93
Liquidity
$11,043.57
Moderate
Volatility
—
Market Split
5%
Market Microstructure
Real-time order book metrics. Depth shows available USD liquidity. Open Interest represents outstanding contracts.
Mid
2.3%
Spread
1.60% (6957bps)
Depth
$11.0k
Tick Size
0.10%
Market Info
Resolution Date
Dec 31, 2025
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
Politics
No chart data available.
Markets Across Platforms
| Platform | Yes | No | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| - | - | Trade |
Resolution Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory or against any Iranian embassies or consulates between June 26, 7:00 PM ET and, December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the US military on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.
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