Another US military action against Iran before 2026?

Rank #3788·0 on watchlist
polymarket
Resolves Dec 31, 2025 BinaryUpdated just nowPolitics
Current YES Probability
3.1%0.0% (24h)
NO: 97.7% Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
Total Volume
$1,045,233.93
Liquidity
$11,043.57
Moderate
Volatility
Market Split
5%

Market Microstructure

Mid
2.3%
Spread
1.60% (6957bps)
Depth
$11.0k
Tick Size
0.10%

Market Info

Resolution Date
Dec 31, 2025
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
Politics
No chart data available.

Markets Across Platforms

PlatformYesNoAction
polymarket--Trade

Resolution Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory or against any Iranian embassies or consulates between June 26, 7:00 PM ET and, December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the US military on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.

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