China coup attempt before 2027?

Rank #15128·0 on watchlist
polymarket
Resolves Dec 31, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowPolitics
Current YES Probability
8.0%0.0% (24h)
NO: 93.5% Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
Total Volume
$1,658.81
Liquidity
$3,809.30
Thin
Volatility
Market Split
13%

Market Microstructure

Mid
6.5%
Spread
3.00% (4615bps)
Depth
$3.8k
Tick Size
0.10%

Market Info

Resolution Date
Dec 31, 2026
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
Politics
No chart data available.

Markets Across Platforms

PlatformYesNoAction
polymarket--Trade

Resolution Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify. Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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