Part of Fed decision in January?

Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?

Rank #3·0 on watchlist
polymarket
Resolves Jan 28, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowEconomics
Current YES Probability
0.4%0.0% (24h)
NO: 99.7% Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
Total Volume
$29,039,792.27
Liquidity
$3,772,288.70
Deep
Volatility
Market Split
1%

Market Microstructure

Mid
0.35%
Spread
0.10% (2857bps)
Depth
$3.8M
Tick Size
0.10%

Market Info

Resolution Date
Jan 28, 2026
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
Economics
No chart data available.

Event Outcomes

OutcomeProbabilityAction
No change in Fed interest rates
87.5%Trade
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps
10.5%Trade
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps
1.4%Trade
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps
0.4%Trade

Resolution Rules

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 27 - 28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Trending in Economics

#1
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?
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#2
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
+0.0%
#3
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?
+0.0%