Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by March 31?

Q: Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by March 31?

Current market consensus shows a 4% probability of YES based on prediction market data from platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi.

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Resolves — BinaryUpdated just nowPolitics

Current YES Probability

4.0%0.0% (24h)

NO: 96.0%• Updated just now

Analysis...

Last 24h trend

Volume (Period)

—

Total Volume

$3,406.96

Liquidity

$11,052.77

Moderate

Volatility

—

Confidence (R²)

—

Market Info

Resolution Date

TBD

Resolution Source

Platform Decision

SentimentNeutral

YES / NO Ratio

-%/-%

Market Skew(0.0% 24h)-

Retail Sentiment-

Maker/Taker Bias-

Community Sentiment

0 votes

BearishNeutralBullish

Markets Across Platforms

Platform	Yes	No	Action
polymarket	-	-	Trade

Resolution Rules

his market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

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