Google Gemini Parlay
Rank #8676·0 on watchlist
Resolves Jan 31, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowGeneral
Current YES Probability
20.0%0.0% (24h)
NO: 81.5%• Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
—
Total Volume
$30,095.11
Liquidity
$1,905.30
Thin
Volatility
—
Market Split
37%
Market Microstructure
Real-time order book metrics. Depth shows available USD liquidity. Open Interest represents outstanding contracts.
Mid
19%
Spread
3.00% (1622bps)
Depth
$1.9k
Tick Size
0.10%
Market Info
Resolution Date
Jan 31, 2026
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
General
No chart data available.
Markets Across Platforms
| Platform | Yes | No | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
 polymarket | - | - | Trade |
Resolution Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- Any model owned by Google has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard on January 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
- Google Gemini 3 scores at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam
- Gemini 3 scores at least 40% on FrontierMath Benchmark
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Google+Gemini+Parlay.pdf
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