Part of Grok 4.20 released by...?

Grok 4.20 released by December 31?

Rank #3570·0 on watchlist
polymarket
Resolves — BinaryUpdated just nowScience & Tech
Current YES Probability
25.0%0.0% (24h)
NO: 79.5% Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
Total Volume
$17,145.24
Liquidity
$1,865.37
Thin
Volatility
Market Split
41%

Market Microstructure

Mid
21%
Spread
9.00% (4390bps)
Depth
$1.9k
Tick Size
0.10%

Market Info

Resolution Date
TBD
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
Science & Tech
No chart data available.

Event Outcomes

OutcomeProbabilityAction
April 20
97.0%Trade
January 31
93.5%Trade
January 15
91.0%Trade
December 31
20.5%Trade

Resolution Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4.20 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," Grok 4.20 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. Grok 4.20 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.20, or one that is recognized as a successor to Grok 4.1 similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1. Products labeled as Grok 4.12 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

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