Part of Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31?

Rank #5528·0 on watchlist
polymarket
Resolves Dec 31, 2025 BinaryUpdated just nowGeneral
Current YES Probability
1.9%0.0% (24h)
NO: 98.3% Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
Total Volume
$680,183.80
Liquidity
$12,196.56
Moderate
Volatility
Market Split
3%

Market Microstructure

Mid
1.7%
Spread
0.40% (2353bps)
Depth
$12.2k
Tick Size
0.10%

Market Info

Resolution Date
Dec 31, 2025
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
General
No chart data available.

Event Outcomes

OutcomeProbabilityAction
March 31, 2026
15.5%Trade
December 31
1.7%Trade
October 31
-Trade
November 30
-Trade
November 7
-Trade

Resolution Rules

On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/ This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Trending in General

#1
Epstein blackmail evidence released in 2025?
+0.0%
#2
Will Stephen Colbert be named in newly released Epstein files?
+0.0%
#3
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?
+0.0%