Part of Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by...?

Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by December 31?

Rank #2320·0 on watchlist
polymarket
Resolves Dec 31, 2025 BinaryUpdated just nowGeneral
Current YES Probability
2.8%0.0% (24h)
NO: 97.3% Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
Total Volume
$957,183.77
Liquidity
$23,474.26
Moderate
Volatility
Market Split
5%

Market Microstructure

Mid
2.7%
Spread
0.20% (741bps)
Depth
$23.5k
Tick Size
0.10%

Market Info

Resolution Date
Dec 31, 2025
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
General
No chart data available.

Event Outcomes

OutcomeProbabilityAction
June 30, 2026
40.5%Trade
March 31, 2026
27.5%Trade
December 31
2.7%Trade
June 27
-Trade
July 11
-Trade
July 31
-Trade
August 31
-Trade
October 31
-Trade
September 30
-Trade

Resolution Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if either Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate, or Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israeli soil or any official Israeli embassy or consulate, by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli or Iranian military forces that impact the other party’s ground territory or any official embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an Israeli missile, or an Israeli air base is hit by an Iranian drone, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the relevant government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on the opposing party’s territory or cause damage.

Trending in General

#1
Epstein blackmail evidence released in 2025?
+0.0%
#2
Will Stephen Colbert be named in newly released Epstein files?
+0.0%
#3
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?
+0.0%