Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?

Rank #14626·0 on watchlist
polymarket
Resolves Dec 31, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowGeneral
Current YES Probability
17.0%0.0% (24h)
NO: 85.0% Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
Total Volume
$185.76
Liquidity
$1,016.51
Thin
Volatility
Market Split
30%

Market Microstructure

Mid
15%
Spread
4.00% (2667bps)
Depth
$1.0k
Tick Size
0.10%

Market Info

Resolution Date
Dec 31, 2026
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
General
No chart data available.

Markets Across Platforms

PlatformYesNoAction
polymarket--Trade

Resolution Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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