Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption is classified as having a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The eruption must be classified as a natural volcanic event of any Eruption Type (i.e., Explosive, Effusive, Phreatic, Lava Lake, Submarine, or similar); eruptions caused by artificial activity, testing, or human-induced explosions do not qualify. The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP), specifically the Max VEI figures released on the "Eruptions in 2026 (New/Total)" page once released. The relevant field for determining eruption strength is the assigned VEI value for the eruptive event. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by February 28, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.