Megaquake by January 31?

Rank #8554·0 on watchlist
polymarket
Resolves Jan 31, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowGeneral
Current YES Probability
19.0%0.0% (24h)
NO: 88.0% Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
Total Volume
$342.66
Liquidity
$1,273.53
Thin
Volatility
Market Split
24%

Market Microstructure

Mid
12%
Spread
14.00% (11667bps)
Depth
$1.3k
Tick Size
0.10%

Market Info

Resolution Date
Jan 31, 2026
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
General
No chart data available.

Markets Across Platforms

PlatformYesNoAction
polymarket--Trade

Resolution Rules

A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater. This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

Trending in General

#1
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?
+0.0%
#2
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31?
+0.0%
#3
Lighter Airdrop on December 29?
+0.0%