Current YES Probability
32.0%0.0% (24h)
NO: 69.0%• Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
—
Total Volume
$8,235.91
Liquidity
$2,710.47
Thin
Volatility
—
Market Split
62%
Market Microstructure
Real-time order book metrics. Depth shows available USD liquidity. Open Interest represents outstanding contracts.
Mid
31%
Spread
2.00% (645bps)
Depth
$2.7k
Tick Size
0.10%
Market Info
Resolution Date
Feb 28, 2026
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
Politics
No chart data available.
Markets Across Platforms
| Platform | Yes | No | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| - | - | Trade |
Resolution Rules
On September 18, 2025, Acting U.S. Attorney Joseph H. Thompson announced that eight Minneapolis defendants were indicted for defrauding Minnesota’s housing stabilization program. It is rumored that some of these funds were used to fund the Somalian terrorist group Al-Shabaab. You can read more about that here: https://www.city-journal.org/article/minnesota-welfare-fraud-somalia-al-shabaab?.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any of the Minnesota defendants who were indicted for fraud in this case are officially deported from the United States by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Deportation is defined as the formal removal of any of the indicted persons from the US by government authorities due to legal or administrative reasons. Voluntary departure, extradition, or relocation without an official deportation order will not count.
The resolution source will be credible reporting from major news outlets or official government statements.
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