Negative GDP growth in 2025?
Rank #7471·0 on watchlist
Resolves Jan 30, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowEconomics
Current YES Probability
1.0%0.0% (24h)
NO: 99.1%• Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
—
Total Volume
$93,410.12
Liquidity
$4,728.38
Thin
Volatility
—
Market Split
2%
Market Microstructure
Real-time order book metrics. Depth shows available USD liquidity. Open Interest represents outstanding contracts.
Mid
0.95%
Spread
0.10% (1053bps)
Depth
$4.7k
Tick Size
0.10%
Market Info
Resolution Date
Jan 30, 2026
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
Economics
No chart data available.
Markets Across Platforms
| Platform | Yes | No | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
 polymarket | - | - | Trade |
Resolution Rules
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2025, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2025, scheduled for release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on January 30, 2026, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2025, which provides the initial full-year 2025 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
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