Negative GDP growth in 2026?
Rank #13957·0 on watchlist
Resolves Jan 29, 2027 BinaryUpdated just nowEconomics
Current YES Probability
37.0%0.0% (24h)
NO: 78.0%• Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
—
Total Volume
$36.17
Liquidity
$592.65
Thin
Volatility
—
Market Split
44%
Market Microstructure
Real-time order book metrics. Depth shows available USD liquidity. Open Interest represents outstanding contracts.
Mid
22%
Spread
30.00% (13636bps)
Depth
$593
Tick Size
0.10%
Market Info
Resolution Date
Jan 29, 2027
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
Economics
No chart data available.
Markets Across Platforms
| Platform | Yes | No | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
 polymarket | - | - | Trade |
Resolution Rules
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
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