Part of Nuclear weapon detonation by...?

Nuclear weapon detonation by June 30?

Rank #12551·0 on watchlist
polymarket
Resolves Jun 30, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowPolitics
Current YES Probability
11.0%0.0% (24h)
NO: 89.5% Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
Total Volume
$50,860.76
Liquidity
$14,416.13
Moderate
Volatility
Market Split
21%

Market Microstructure

Mid
11%
Spread
1.00% (952bps)
Depth
$14.4k
Tick Size
0.10%

Market Info

Resolution Date
Jun 30, 2026
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
Politics
No chart data available.

Event Outcomes

OutcomeProbabilityAction
December 31
20.0%Trade
June 30
10.5%Trade
March 31
4.8%Trade

Resolution Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a nuclear weapon is detonated anywhere in the world between November 5, 2025 ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market's resolution, any detonation of a nuclear weapon anywhere on the planet Earth or in space will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution. This includes offensive usages, nuclear tests, and accidental detonations. Use/launch of a nuclear weapon that fails to detonate, a fake weapon that never detonates, or a dirty bomb that distributes radioactive material by means of a conventional explosion are not sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution of this market. Only a successful nuclear detonation will result in a "Yes" resolution. This market may resolve to "Yes" as soon as a nuclear detonation is confirmed by a preponderance of credible reporting. For the purpose of this market's resolution, determination as to whether a detonation was nuclear will be made by a preponderance of credible reporting.

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