Part of Nuclear weapon detonation by...?
Nuclear weapon detonation by March 31?
Resolves Mar 31, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowPolitics
Current YES Probability
8.0%0.0% (24h)
NO: 95.3%• Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
—
Total Volume
$14.06
Liquidity
$217.57
Thin
Volatility
—
Market Split
9%
Market Microstructure
Real-time order book metrics. Depth shows available USD liquidity. Open Interest represents outstanding contracts.
Mid
4.8%
Spread
6.50% (13684bps)
Depth
$218
Tick Size
0.10%
Market Info
Resolution Date
Mar 31, 2026
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
Politics
No chart data available.
Resolution Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a nuclear weapon is detonated anywhere in the world between December 17, 2025 ET, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market's resolution, any detonation of a nuclear weapon anywhere on the planet Earth or in space will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution. This includes offensive usages, nuclear tests, and accidental detonations.
Use/launch of a nuclear weapon that fails to detonate, a fake weapon that never detonates, or a dirty bomb that distributes radioactive material by means of a conventional explosion are not sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution of this market. Only a successful nuclear detonation will result in a "Yes" resolution.
This market may resolve to "Yes" as soon as a nuclear detonation is confirmed by a preponderance of credible reporting.
For the purpose of this market's resolution, determination as to whether a detonation was nuclear will be made by a preponderance of credible reporting.
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