Part of Nuclear weapon detonation by...?

Nuclear weapon detonation by March 31?

Rank #14626·0 on watchlist
polymarket
Resolves Mar 31, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowPolitics
Current YES Probability
8.0%0.0% (24h)
NO: 95.3% Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
Total Volume
$14.06
Liquidity
$217.57
Thin
Volatility
Market Split
9%

Market Microstructure

Mid
4.8%
Spread
6.50% (13684bps)
Depth
$218
Tick Size
0.10%

Market Info

Resolution Date
Mar 31, 2026
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
Politics
No chart data available.

Event Outcomes

OutcomeProbabilityAction
December 31
20.0%Trade
June 30
10.5%Trade
March 31
4.8%Trade

Resolution Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a nuclear weapon is detonated anywhere in the world between December 17, 2025 ET, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market's resolution, any detonation of a nuclear weapon anywhere on the planet Earth or in space will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution. This includes offensive usages, nuclear tests, and accidental detonations. Use/launch of a nuclear weapon that fails to detonate, a fake weapon that never detonates, or a dirty bomb that distributes radioactive material by means of a conventional explosion are not sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution of this market. Only a successful nuclear detonation will result in a "Yes" resolution. This market may resolve to "Yes" as soon as a nuclear detonation is confirmed by a preponderance of credible reporting. For the purpose of this market's resolution, determination as to whether a detonation was nuclear will be made by a preponderance of credible reporting.

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