Current YES Probability
10.5%0.0% (24h)
NO: 89.5%• Updated just now
Analysis...
Last 24h trend
Volume (Period)
—
Total Volume
$10,710.21
Liquidity
$3,236.64
Thin
Volatility
—
Confidence (R²)
—
Market Info
Resolution Date
TBD
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
Science & Tech
No chart data available.
SentimentNeutral
YES / NO Ratio
-%/-%
Market Skew(0.0% 24h)-
Retail Sentiment-
Maker/Taker Bias-
Community Sentiment
0 votesBearishNeutralBullish
Markets Across Platforms
| Platform | Yes | No | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| - | - | Trade |
Resolution Rules
OpenAI Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar recently suggested that OpenAI would be supportive of a government backstop for its investments in AI infrastructure including chips and data centers. Friar and Open AI Chief Executive Officer Sam Altman later backtracked on that statement. You can read more about that here: https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/06/tech/openai-backtracks-government-support-chip-investments.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI or any financial lender or intermediary involved in providing debt financing to OpenAI receives a U.S. federal government backstop for any debt-transaction undertaken primarily for the benefit of OpenAI’s investments in AI infrastructure by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A backstop is defined as any explicit or legally binding loan guarantee, insurance, or equivalent financial instrument through which the U.S. federal government assumes or commits to assume partial or full repayment risk on OpenAI debt.
Tax credits, depreciation benefits, or grants not tied to a specific debt transaction will not qualify.
The debt transaction which receives a government backstop must be primarily aimed at the development, building, or manufacturing of AI infrastructure.
The primary source of resolution will be information from Open AI and the United States Federal Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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