Current YES Probability
86.0%0.0% (24h)
NO: 15.5%• Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
—
Total Volume
$4,235.93
Liquidity
$3,650.88
Thin
Volatility
—
Market Split
31%
Market Microstructure
Real-time order book metrics. Depth shows available USD liquidity. Open Interest represents outstanding contracts.
Mid
85%
Spread
3.00% (355bps)
Depth
$3.7k
Tick Size
0.10%
Market Info
Resolution Date
Dec 31, 2025
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
General
No chart data available.
Markets Across Platforms
| Platform | Yes | No | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| - | - | Trade |
Resolution Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump, the US government, or US armed forces announces that US armed forces conducted a new strike against any watercraft designated as a narco terrorist target between market creation and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any announcement made within this market's timeframe of a qualifying, previously unannounced strike will count, regardless of whether the strike occurred within this market's timeframe.
A qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, naval guns, artillery, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces at a qualifying watercraft that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
A boarding or the use of small arms fire will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the US government or armed forces; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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