Current YES Probability
5.8%0.0% (24h)
NO: 95.2%• Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
—
Total Volume
$25,659.70
Liquidity
$5,761.83
Thin
Volatility
—
Market Split
10%
Market Microstructure
Real-time order book metrics. Depth shows available USD liquidity. Open Interest represents outstanding contracts.
Mid
4.9%
Spread
1.90% (3918bps)
Depth
$5.8k
Tick Size
0.10%
Market Info
Resolution Date
Dec 31, 2025
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
Politics
No chart data available.
Markets Across Platforms
| Platform | Yes | No | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| - | - | Trade |
Resolution Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Ukrainian armed forces initiate a drone, missile, or air strike on Moscow municipality's soil on the listed date Moscow Standard Time (MSK). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Ukrainian armed forces that impact Moscow municipality's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Moscow municipality counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the Moscow municipality's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by the Ukrainian armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Ukrainian or Russian), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
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