Current YES Probability
57.0%0.0% (24h)
NO: 48.0%• Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
—
Total Volume
$380.95
Liquidity
$2,149.91
Thin
Volatility
—
Market Split
96%
Market Microstructure
Real-time order book metrics. Depth shows available USD liquidity. Open Interest represents outstanding contracts.
Mid
52%
Spread
10.00% (1923bps)
Depth
$2.1k
Tick Size
0.10%
Market Info
Resolution Date
Mar 31, 2026
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
Politics
No chart data available.
Markets Across Platforms
| Platform | Yes | No | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| - | - | Trade |
Resolution Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participates on the ground in an anti-cartel operation or conducts a kinetic strike directed against a cartel on foreign soil by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count.
Only direct U.S. participation which is either confirmed by the U.S. Government or an overwhelming consensus of reporting will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government, however an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.
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