US bank failure by January 31?

Rank #15128·0 on watchlist
polymarket
Resolves Jan 31, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowGeneral
Current YES Probability
20.0%0.0% (24h)
NO: 85.5% Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
Total Volume
$583.31
Liquidity
$429.42
Thin
Volatility
Market Split
29%

Market Microstructure

Mid
15%
Spread
11.00% (7586bps)
Depth
$429
Tick Size
0.10%

Market Info

Resolution Date
Jan 31, 2026
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
General
No chart data available.

Markets Across Platforms

PlatformYesNoAction
polymarket--Trade

Resolution Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.

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