US defaults on debt by 2027?
Rank #8328·0 on watchlist
Resolves Dec 31, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowPolitics
Current YES Probability
6.0%0.0% (24h)
NO: 94.5%• Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
—
Total Volume
$3,890.33
Liquidity
$13,928.94
Moderate
Volatility
—
Market Split
11%
Market Microstructure
Real-time order book metrics. Depth shows available USD liquidity. Open Interest represents outstanding contracts.
Mid
5.5%
Spread
1.00% (1818bps)
Depth
$13.9k
Tick Size
0.10%
Market Info
Resolution Date
Dec 31, 2026
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
Politics
No chart data available.
Markets Across Platforms
| Platform | Yes | No | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
 polymarket | - | - | Trade |
Resolution Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
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