US fertility rate up in Q3 2025?
Rank #14626·0 on watchlist
Resolves Mar 31, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowGeneral
Current YES Probability
95.0%0.0% (24h)
NO: 41.5%• Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
—
Total Volume
$2,415.17
Liquidity
$131.85
Thin
Volatility
—
Market Split
83%
Market Microstructure
Real-time order book metrics. Depth shows available USD liquidity. Open Interest represents outstanding contracts.
Mid
59%
Spread
73.00% (12479bps)
Depth
$132
Tick Size
0.10%
Market Info
Resolution Date
Mar 31, 2026
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
General
No chart data available.
Markets Across Platforms
| Platform | Yes | No | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
 polymarket | - | - | Trade |
Resolution Rules
The CDC reported a general fertility rate of 53.7 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44 for Q2 2025 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/natality-dashboard.htm).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the initial reported rate for Q3 2025 exceeds 53.7, according to the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the CDC does not release general fertility rate data for Q3 2025 by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution will be based on the first published estimate for Q3 2025, regardless of any subsequent revisions.
The resolution source will be the CDC’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release.
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