U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?
Rank #15128·0 on watchlist
Resolves Dec 31, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowGeneral
Current YES Probability
33.0%0.0% (24h)
NO: 70.0%• Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
—
Total Volume
$631.04
Liquidity
$734.47
Thin
Volatility
—
Market Split
60%
Market Microstructure
Real-time order book metrics. Depth shows available USD liquidity. Open Interest represents outstanding contracts.
Mid
30%
Spread
6.00% (2000bps)
Depth
$734
Tick Size
0.10%
Market Info
Resolution Date
Dec 31, 2026
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
General
No chart data available.
Markets Across Platforms
| Platform | Yes | No | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
 polymarket | - | - | Trade |
Resolution Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active regular US military personnel physically enter Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify.
US military personnel entering buffer zones under control of Israel will not qualify.
High ranking U.S. service members entering Gaza for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage), military contractors, military advisors, and special operation forces will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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