U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?
Rank #14626·0 on watchlist
Resolves Dec 31, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowGeneral
Current YES Probability
39.0%0.0% (24h)
NO: 64.0%• Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
—
Total Volume
$1,164.57
Liquidity
$20,130.12
Moderate
Volatility
—
Market Split
72%
Market Microstructure
Real-time order book metrics. Depth shows available USD liquidity. Open Interest represents outstanding contracts.
Mid
36%
Spread
6.00% (1667bps)
Depth
$20.1k
Tick Size
0.10%
Market Info
Resolution Date
Dec 31, 2026
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
General
No chart data available.
Markets Across Platforms
| Platform | Yes | No | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
 polymarket | - | - | Trade |
Resolution Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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