US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?
Rank #15128·0 on watchlist
Resolves Dec 31, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowPolitics
Current YES Probability
39.0%0.0% (24h)
NO: 64.5%• Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
—
Total Volume
$11,035.07
Liquidity
$11,634.98
Moderate
Volatility
—
Market Split
71%
Market Microstructure
Real-time order book metrics. Depth shows available USD liquidity. Open Interest represents outstanding contracts.
Mid
36%
Spread
7.00% (1972bps)
Depth
$11.6k
Tick Size
0.10%
Market Info
Resolution Date
Dec 31, 2026
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
Politics
No chart data available.
Markets Across Platforms
| Platform | Yes | No | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
 polymarket | - | - | Trade |
Resolution Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government officially recognizes Russian sovereignty over any portion of Ukrainian territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
Ukrainian territory is defined as any portion of Ukraine as recognized by the UN at the start of the present conflict on February 24, 2022, including Crimea.
The resolution source will be official U.S. government statements and credible reporting from major news organizations.
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