Part of US strike on Syria by December 31??

US strike on Syria by December 31?

Rank #2074·0 on watchlist
polymarket
Resolves Dec 31, 2025 BinaryUpdated just nowPolitics
Current YES Probability
18.0%0.0% (24h)
NO: 83.0% Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
Total Volume
$478,931.34
Liquidity
$10,391.47
Moderate
Volatility
Market Split
0%

Market Microstructure

Mid
17%
Spread
2.00% (1176bps)
Depth
$10.4k
Tick Size
0.10%

Market Info

Resolution Date
Dec 31, 2025
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
Politics
No chart data available.

Event Outcomes

OutcomeProbabilityAction
December
17.0%Trade
January
-Trade

Resolution Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Syrian soil or any official Syrian embassy or consulate between this market's creation time and December 31, 2025 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Syrian ground territory or any official Syrian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Syrian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Syrian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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