Part of How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2025?

Will 7-9 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025?

Rank #13598·0 on watchlist
polymarket
Resolves Dec 31, 2025 BinaryUpdated just nowGeneral
Current YES Probability
0.4%0.0% (24h)
NO: 99.8% Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
Total Volume
$188,421.77
Liquidity
$8,083.74
Thin
Volatility
Market Split
1%

Market Microstructure

Mid
0.25%
Spread
0.30% (12000bps)
Depth
$8.1k
Tick Size
0.10%

Market Info

Resolution Date
Dec 31, 2025
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
General
No chart data available.

Event Outcomes

OutcomeProbabilityAction
Will 4-6
99.5%Trade
Will 13-15
0.3%Trade
Will 7-9
0.3%Trade
Will 10-12
0.1%Trade
Will 16-18
0.1%Trade
Will 19-21
0.1%Trade
Will 22-24
0.1%Trade
Will 25 or more
0.1%Trade
Will less than 4
-Trade

Resolution Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if between 7 (inclusive) and 9 (inclusive) SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2025 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g. an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g. via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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