Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30?
Rank #12061·0 on watchlist
Resolves Jun 30, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowPolitics
Current YES Probability
20.0%0.0% (24h)
NO: 81.0%• Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
—
Total Volume
$1,084.81
Liquidity
$691.46
Thin
Volatility
—
Market Split
38%
Market Microstructure
Real-time order book metrics. Depth shows available USD liquidity. Open Interest represents outstanding contracts.
Mid
19%
Spread
2.00% (1053bps)
Depth
$691
Tick Size
0.10%
Market Info
Resolution Date
Jun 30, 2026
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
Politics
No chart data available.
Markets Across Platforms
| Platform | Yes | No | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
 polymarket | - | - | Trade |
Resolution Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model owned by a Chinese company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If a Chinese AI model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
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