Part of Will a new country buy Bitcoin by...?

Will a new country buy Bitcoin by December 31, 2025?

Rank #15128·0 on watchlist
polymarket
Resolves Dec 31, 2025 BinaryUpdated just nowCrypto
Current YES Probability
16.7%0.0% (24h)
NO: 91.3% Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
Total Volume
$3,486.87
Liquidity
$267.98
Thin
Volatility
Market Split
18%

Market Microstructure

Mid
8.8%
Spread
15.90% (18171bps)
Depth
$268
Tick Size
0.10%

Market Info

Resolution Date
Dec 31, 2025
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
Crypto
No chart data available.

Event Outcomes

OutcomeProbabilityAction
June 30, 2026
61.0%Trade
December 31, 2026
52.0%Trade
December 31, 2025
8.8%Trade

Resolution Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of any sovereign UN member state announces between November 13, 3:00 PM ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET that they bought Bitcoin for the first time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This announcement can pertain to a first purchase of Bitcoin outside of the timeframe of this market (e.g. if a country announces it made its first purchase of Bitcoin prior to this market's timeframe, but the announcement is made within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes"). A qualifying purchase requires a relevant country take direct custody over the Bitcoin they purchase. Buying into investment vehicles, ETFs, etc., which do not constitute a direct purchase of Bitcoin, will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official announcements from the governments of any purchasing UN member state, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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