Part of Will a new country buy Bitcoin by...?

Will a new country buy Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?

Rank #15128·0 on watchlist
polymarket
Resolves Dec 31, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowCrypto
Current YES Probability
64.0%0.0% (24h)
NO: 48.0% Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
Total Volume
$146.26
Liquidity
$1,727.93
Thin
Volatility
Market Split
96%

Market Microstructure

Mid
52%
Spread
24.00% (4615bps)
Depth
$1.7k
Tick Size
0.10%

Market Info

Resolution Date
Dec 31, 2026
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
Crypto
No chart data available.

Event Outcomes

OutcomeProbabilityAction
June 30, 2026
61.0%Trade
December 31, 2026
52.0%Trade
December 31, 2025
8.8%Trade

Resolution Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of any sovereign UN member state announces between November 13, 3:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that they bought Bitcoin for the first time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This announcement can pertain to a first purchase of Bitcoin outside of the timeframe of this market (e.g. if a country announces it made its first purchase of Bitcoin prior to this market's timeframe, but the announcement is made within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes"). A qualifying purchase requires a relevant country take direct custody over the Bitcoin they purchase. Buying into investment vehicles, ETFs, etc., which do not constitute a direct purchase of Bitcoin, will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official announcements from the governments of any purchasing UN member state, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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