Part of Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Rank #13508·0 on watchlist
polymarket
Resolves Jun 30, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowScience & Tech
Current YES Probability
46.0%0.0% (24h)
NO: 73.0% Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
Total Volume
$44.57
Liquidity
$781.19
Thin
Volatility
Market Split
54%

Market Microstructure

Mid
27%
Spread
38.00% (14074bps)
Depth
$781
Tick Size
0.10%

Market Info

Resolution Date
Jun 30, 2026
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
Science & Tech
No chart data available.

Event Outcomes

OutcomeProbabilityAction
Will xAI
48.5%Trade
Will Z.ai
42.0%Trade
Will OpenAI
35.5%Trade
Will Alibaba
27.0%Trade
Will Anthropic
26.5%Trade
Will Mistral
21.0%Trade
Will Meta
8.0%Trade
Will Baidu
7.5%Trade
Will Nvidia
6.5%Trade
Will DeepSeek
4.9%Trade

Resolution Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.

Trending in Science & Tech

#1
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
+0.0%
#2
Will DraftKings launch a prediction market in 2025?
+0.0%
#3
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?
+0.0%