Will another country recognize Somaliland by March 31?

Rank #15089·0 on watchlist
polymarket
Resolves Mar 31, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowPolitics
Current YES Probability
29.0%0.0% (24h)
NO: 72.5% Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
Total Volume
$3,114.06
Liquidity
$3,861.29
Thin
Volatility
Market Split
55%

Market Microstructure

Mid
28%
Spread
3.00% (1091bps)
Depth
$3.9k
Tick Size
0.10%

Market Info

Resolution Date
Mar 31, 2026
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
Politics
No chart data available.

Markets Across Platforms

PlatformYesNoAction
polymarket--Trade

Resolution Rules

On Friday, December 26th, Israel became the first country to recognize Somaliland as a sovereign state. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-recognises-somaliland-somalias-breakway-region-independent-state-2025-12-26/. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any other UN member state formally recognizes the Republic of Somaliland as a sovereign state by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only formal recognition of Somaliland will qualify. Statements/actions which acknowledge the Republic of Somaliland, or change its diplomatic status with a relevant country, but do not formally recognize the Republic of Somaliland as a sovereign state will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of a recognizing country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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