Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

Rank #13908·0 on watchlist
polymarket
Resolves Dec 31, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowGeneral
Current YES Probability
72.0%0.0% (24h)
NO: 39.0% Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
Total Volume
$11.39
Liquidity
$473.71
Thin
Volatility
Market Split
78%

Market Microstructure

Mid
61%
Spread
22.00% (3607bps)
Depth
$474
Tick Size
0.10%

Market Info

Resolution Date
Dec 31, 2026
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
General
No chart data available.

Markets Across Platforms

PlatformYesNoAction
polymarket--Trade

Resolution Rules

For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.

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