Part of Will any country leave NATO by...?
Will any country leave NATO in 2025?
Rank #14626·0 on watchlist
Resolves Dec 31, 2025 BinaryUpdated just nowGeneral
Current YES Probability
0.4%0.0% (24h)
NO: 99.7%• Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
—
Total Volume
$272,910.75
Liquidity
$13,795.28
Moderate
Volatility
—
Market Split
1%
Market Microstructure
Real-time order book metrics. Depth shows available USD liquidity. Open Interest represents outstanding contracts.
Mid
0.30%
Spread
0.20% (6667bps)
Depth
$13.8k
Tick Size
0.10%
Market Info
Resolution Date
Dec 31, 2025
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
General
No chart data available.
Resolution Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
A country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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