Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?
Rank #6864·0 on watchlist
Resolves Dec 31, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowCrypto
Current YES Probability
6.2%0.0% (24h)
NO: 93.9%• Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
—
Total Volume
$78,430.54
Liquidity
$15,948.30
Moderate
Volatility
—
Market Split
12%
Market Microstructure
Real-time order book metrics. Depth shows available USD liquidity. Open Interest represents outstanding contracts.
Mid
6.1%
Spread
0.20% (328bps)
Depth
$15.9k
Tick Size
0.10%
Market Info
Resolution Date
Dec 31, 2026
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
Crypto
No chart data available.
Markets Across Platforms
| Platform | Yes | No | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
 polymarket | - | - | Trade |
Resolution Rules
On December 9, Google introduced Willow, a breakthrough state-of-the-art quantum chip. This achievement fueled speculation that Bitcoin's encryption may be vulnerable to quantum computers in the not-so-distant future (see https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2024/12/does-googles-new-quantum-chip-willow-threaten-bitcoin-the-crypto-community-responds/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bitcoin stops using SHA-256 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Bitcoin blockchain, in addition to a consensus of credible reporting.
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