Part of Oscars 2026: Best Actor Nominations

Will Brendan Fraser be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

Rank #14626·0 on watchlist
polymarket
Resolves Jan 22, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowGeneral
Current YES Probability
1.6%0.0% (24h)
NO: 98.8% Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
Total Volume
$5,092.13
Liquidity
$4,883.36
Thin
Volatility
Market Split
3%

Market Microstructure

Mid
1.3%
Spread
0.70% (5600bps)
Depth
$4.9k
Tick Size
0.10%

Market Info

Resolution Date
Jan 22, 2026
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
General
No chart data available.

Event Outcomes

OutcomeProbabilityAction
Leonardo DiCaprio
98.1%Trade
Timothée Chalamet
97.7%Trade
Wagner Moura
89.5%Trade
Michael B. Jordan
83.5%Trade
Ethan Hawke
68.0%Trade
Jesse Plemons
21.5%Trade
Joel Edgerton
17.3%Trade
Dwayne Johnson
15.0%Trade
Lee Byung-hun
13.0%Trade
Paul Mescal
11.2%Trade

Resolution Rules

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed actor is nominated for the 98th Academy Award for Best Actor. If a actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actor when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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