Part of Who will win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?

Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?

Rank #14626·0 on watchlist
polymarket
Resolves Mar 8, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowPolitics
Current YES Probability
92.0%0.0% (24h)
NO: 9.0% Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
Total Volume
$1,791.92
Liquidity
$2,668.23
Thin
Volatility
Market Split
18%

Market Microstructure

Mid
91%
Spread
2.00% (220bps)
Depth
$2.7k
Tick Size
0.10%

Market Info

Resolution Date
Mar 8, 2026
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
Politics
No chart data available.

Event Outcomes

OutcomeProbabilityAction
Will CDU
91.0%Trade
Will AfD
6.1%Trade
Will The Greens
2.8%Trade
Will BSW
0.7%Trade
Will FDP
0.4%Trade
Will SPD
0.4%Trade
Will The Left
0.3%Trade
Will Party C
-Trade
Will Party G
-Trade
Will Party K
-Trade

Resolution Rules

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Baden-Württemberg are scheduled to take place in Baden-Württemberg on March 8, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Baden-Württemberg (Landtag) as a result of this election. If voting in the Baden-Württemberg election for the Landtag does not occur by July 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Baden-Württemberg Statistischen Landesamt (https://www.statistik-bw.de/staat-und-gesellschaft/wahlen/landtagswahl).

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