Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Rank #1855·0 on watchlist
Resolves Dec 31, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowGeneral
Current YES Probability
13.0%0.0% (24h)
NO: 87.5%• Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
—
Total Volume
$2,237,978.28
Liquidity
$118,374.19
Deep
Volatility
—
Market Split
25%
Market Microstructure
Real-time order book metrics. Depth shows available USD liquidity. Open Interest represents outstanding contracts.
Mid
13%
Spread
1.00% (800bps)
Depth
$118.4k
Tick Size
0.10%
Market Info
Resolution Date
Dec 31, 2026
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
General
No chart data available.
Markets Across Platforms
| Platform | Yes | No | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
 polymarket | - | - | Trade |
Resolution Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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