Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
Rank #9085·0 on watchlist
Resolves Jun 30, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowGeneral
Current YES Probability
5.7%0.0% (24h)
NO: 95.6%• Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
—
Total Volume
$1,297.76
Liquidity
$11,895.71
Moderate
Volatility
—
Market Split
9%
Market Microstructure
Real-time order book metrics. Depth shows available USD liquidity. Open Interest represents outstanding contracts.
Mid
4.4%
Spread
2.60% (5909bps)
Depth
$11.9k
Tick Size
0.10%
Market Info
Resolution Date
Jun 30, 2026
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
General
No chart data available.
Markets Across Platforms
| Platform | Yes | No | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
 polymarket | - | - | Trade |
Resolution Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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