Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?
Rank #1174·0 on watchlist
Resolves Dec 31, 2025 BinaryUpdated just nowPolitics
Current YES Probability
0.3%0.0% (24h)
NO: 99.8%• Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
—
Total Volume
$11,588,757.63
Liquidity
$106,384.15
Deep
Volatility
—
Market Split
1%
Market Microstructure
Real-time order book metrics. Depth shows available USD liquidity. Open Interest represents outstanding contracts.
Mid
0.25%
Spread
0.10% (4000bps)
Depth
$106.4k
Tick Size
0.10%
Market Info
Resolution Date
Dec 31, 2025
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
Politics
No chart data available.
Markets Across Platforms
| Platform | Yes | No | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
 polymarket | - | - | Trade |
Resolution Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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