Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?

Q: 2026 NCAA Tournament Winner - Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?

Current market consensus shows a 12% probability of YES based on prediction market data from platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi.

Rank #15128·0 on watchlist

Resolves Apr 4, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowGeneral

Current YES Probability

12.0%0.0% (24h)

NO: 89.5%• Updated just now

Analysis...

Volume (24h)

—

Total Volume

$2,895.87

Liquidity

$45,907.07

Moderate

Volatility

—

Market Split

21%

Market Microstructure

Mid

11%

Spread

3.00% (2857bps)

Depth

$45.9k

Tick Size

0.10%

Market Info

Resolution Date

Apr 4, 2026

Resolution Source

Platform Decision

Event Outcomes

Outcome	Probability	Action
Will Michigan	19.0%	Trade
Will Purdue	11.0%	Trade
Will Duke	10.5%	Trade
Will Houston	9.0%	Trade
Will Arizona	8.7%	Trade
Will Iowa State	8.4%	Trade
Will Connecticut	6.0%	Trade
Will Florida	5.5%	Trade
Will Gonzaga	5.3%	Trade
Will BYU	4.4%	Trade

Resolution Rules

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament. If it is impossible for a team to win the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament according to the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated) , the corresponding market will immediately resolve to “No”. If for any reason no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be information from the NCAA.

Trending in General

Epstein blackmail evidence released in 2025?

+0.0%

Will Stephen Colbert be named in newly released Epstein files?

+0.0%

Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?

+0.0%