Part of How much spending will DOGE cut in 2025?

Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025?

Rank #14199·0 on watchlist
polymarket
Resolves Dec 31, 2025 BinaryUpdated just nowGeneral
Current YES Probability
0.2%0.0% (24h)
NO: 99.9% Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
Total Volume
$415,041.91
Liquidity
$9,121.37
Thin
Volatility
Market Split
0%

Market Microstructure

Mid
0.15%
Spread
0.10% (6667bps)
Depth
$9.1k
Tick Size
0.10%

Market Info

Resolution Date
Dec 31, 2025
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
General
No chart data available.

Event Outcomes

OutcomeProbabilityAction
less than $50b
97.8%Trade
more than $250b
1.1%Trade
between $50-100b
0.9%Trade
between $150-200b
0.3%Trade
between $200-250b
0.1%Trade
between $100-150b
0.1%Trade

Resolution Rules

This market will resolve based on federal government current expenditures as reported by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND). This market will resolve to the amount federal government current expenditures decrease by between the Q4 2024 report and the Q4 2025 report. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The difference will be calculated as the Q4 2024 value minus the Q4 2025 value. The figures will be based on the initial Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 values as reported by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank. Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used. The figures will be based on the Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 values as reported by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank as soon as the data for Q4 2025 becomes available, regardless of whether later revisions are made. This market's resolution source is the Federal Government: Current Expenditures chart maintained by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND).

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