Will Elon cut the budget by at least 5% in 2025?
Rank #15128·0 on watchlist
Resolves Feb 28, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowPolitics
Current YES Probability
0.9%0.0% (24h)
NO: 99.3%• Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
—
Total Volume
$99,441.07
Liquidity
$8,905.35
Thin
Volatility
—
Market Split
2%
Market Microstructure
Real-time order book metrics. Depth shows available USD liquidity. Open Interest represents outstanding contracts.
Mid
0.75%
Spread
0.30% (4000bps)
Depth
$8.9k
Tick Size
0.10%
Market Info
Resolution Date
Feb 28, 2026
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
Politics
No chart data available.
Markets Across Platforms
| Platform | Yes | No | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
 polymarket | - | - | Trade |
Resolution Rules
In Q4 2024, government expenditures were $7,106,807,000,000 (see https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if federal government current expenditures decrease by 5% or more between the Q4 2024 report and the Q4 2025 report. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
Any 2025 quarterly report of $6,751,467,000,000 or less will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used.
This market's resolution source is the Federal Government: Current Expenditures chart maintained by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND).
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