Part of Brazil Presidential Election

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Rank #3115·0 on watchlist
polymarket
Resolves Oct 4, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowGeneral
Current YES Probability
17.8%0.0% (24h)
NO: 82.3% Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
Total Volume
$1,012,648.83
Liquidity
$64,266.39
Moderate
Volatility
Market Split
35%

Market Microstructure

Mid
18%
Spread
0.20% (113bps)
Depth
$64.3k
Tick Size
0.10%

Market Info

Resolution Date
Oct 4, 2026
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
General
No chart data available.

Event Outcomes

OutcomeProbabilityAction
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
48.5%Trade
Flávio Bolsonaro
17.7%Trade
Tarcisio de Freitas
16.5%Trade
Renan Santos
7.4%Trade
Fernando Haddad
3.9%Trade
Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior
3.8%Trade
Michelle Bolsonaro
0.8%Trade
Jair Bolsonaro
0.7%Trade
Eduardo Bolsonaro
0.2%Trade
Person E
-Trade

Resolution Rules

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

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