Part of Germany GDP growth in Q4 2025?

Will Germany GDP growth in Q4 2025 be exactly 0.2%?

Rank #14626·0 on watchlist
polymarket
Resolves — BinaryUpdated just nowEconomics
Current YES Probability
47.0%0.0% (24h)
NO: 72.0% Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
Total Volume
$102.70
Liquidity
$181.07
Thin
Volatility
Market Split
56%

Market Microstructure

Mid
28%
Spread
38.00% (13571bps)
Depth
$181
Tick Size
0.10%

Market Info

Resolution Date
TBD
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
Economics
No chart data available.

Event Outcomes

OutcomeProbabilityAction
exactly 0.2
28.0%Trade
exactly 0.4
27.5%Trade
below 0.0
27.5%Trade
exactly 0.3
27.5%Trade
exactly 0.1
26.5%Trade
exactly 0.0
25.0%Trade
above 0.4
5.5%Trade

Resolution Rules

This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rates over the same quarter of the previous year % change, based on seasonally adjusted data, in the first release of the "Gross domestic product: detailed economic performance results" press release for Q4 of 2025, expected to be released at the end of January 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html If no data for the specified quarter is released by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: the resolution source for this market reports "on the same quarter a year earlier (price adjusted)" to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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