Part of What will happen before GTA VI?

Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?

Rank #4244·0 on watchlist
polymarket
Resolves Jul 31, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowGeneral
Current YES Probability
72.0%0.0% (24h)
NO: 29.5% Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
Total Volume
$199,229.15
Liquidity
$20,846.00
Moderate
Volatility
Market Split
59%

Market Microstructure

Mid
71%
Spread
3.00% (426bps)
Depth
$20.8k
Tick Size
0.10%

Market Info

Resolution Date
Jul 31, 2026
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
General
No chart data available.

Event Outcomes

OutcomeProbabilityAction
Will GPT-6 be released
70.5%Trade
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire
62.0%Trade
New Playboi Carti Album
61.5%Trade
New Rihanna Album
56.0%Trade
Trump out as President
51.0%Trade
Will China invades Taiwan
51.0%Trade
Will Jesus Christ return
48.5%Trade
Will bitcoin hit $1m
48.5%Trade

Resolution Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count. The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive. To qualify, GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-4 to GPT-5. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for the release of GPT-6 will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

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